Bayesian Statistics: An Introduction for the Practicing Reliability Engineer

Abstract

This article introduces and reviews some of the principles and methods used in Bayesian reliability. It specifically discusses methods used in the analysis of success/no-success data and describes a simple Monte Carlo algorithm that can be used to calculate the posterior distribution of a system’s reliability. This algorithm is especially useful when a system’s reliability is modeled through the reliability of its subcomponents, yet only system-level data are available.