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7:00 - 8:15 Check In
 
8:30 - 8:45 Welcome and Insights from 2007
Review definition of unrestricted warfare, interrelated lessons for the strategy, analysis, and technology communities.
 
Dr. Ronald R. Luman, JHU/APL

Ron Luman is Head of the National Security Analysis Department (NSAD) at JHU/APL. With a staff of 180, NSAD taps JHU/APL’s engineering and scientific expertise, military and intelligence operational experience, advanced simulation methodologies, and sophisticated seminar and decision support techniques to conduct analyses of critical national security issues for U.S. Government sponsors. NSAD has provided independent recommendations and guidelines on capabilities, systems, and architectures for OSD, CNO, JFCOM, NSA, DARPA, DTRA, and other sponsors. Under Dr. Luman’s leadership, NSAD‘s Warfare Analysis Business Area is now focusing on the emergence of non-nation state threats to national security.

Dr. Luman has expertise in applying systems engineering principles to guidance system accuracy, unmanned undersea vehicles, countermine warfare, ballistic missile defense, and intelligence systems. He was chief analyst for the Joint Countermine Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration and principal in a watershed study to define the sea-based components of the ballistic missile defense architecture. He was technical director for intelligence systems engineering and architecture, and a member of the National Academy of Sciences committee on the role of naval forces in the global war on terror. He leads a cross-enterprise activity at JHU/APL to understand future conflict and build appropriate technical capabilities to counter unconventional warfare.

Dr. Luman earned his doctorate in operations research from the George Washington University, received master’s degrees from Michigan State and Johns Hopkins, and is a 1976 graduate of Middlebury College. He was an Adjunct Professor of Systems Engineering for the George Washington University at the U.S. Naval Academy (1998–2002). In 2006, he initiated an annual symposium on national security challenges posed by unrestricted warfare, in collaboration with JHU’s School of Advanced International Studies: http://www.jhuapl.edu/urw_symposium/.
8:45 - 9:30 Keynote Address
 
ADM Eric T. Olson, USN, USSOCOM

Admiral Eric T. Olson is the eighth commander of U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) headquartered at MacDill Air Force Base, Florida. USSOCOM ensures the readiness of joint special operations forces and, as directed, conducts operations worldwide.

A native of Tacoma, Washington, Admiral Olson graduated from the United States Naval Academy in 1973 and qualified as a Naval Special Warfare officer in 1974. He has served operationally in an Underwater Demolition Team, SEAL Team, SEAL Delivery Vehicle Team, Special Boat Squadron, and at the Naval Special Warfare Development Group. He has commanded at every level from SEAL Platoon officer-in-charge to Naval Special Warfare force commander.

Admiral Olson has participated in several conflicts and contingency operations, and has served as a SEAL instructor, strategy and tactics development officer and joint special operations staff officer. His overseas assignments include service as a United Nations Military Observer in Israel and Egypt, and as Navy Programs Officer in Tunisia. He served on the Navy staff as Assistant Deputy Chief of Naval Operations (Plans, Policy, and Operations).

Admiral Olson earned a Master of Arts degree in National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School and studied both Arabic and French at the Defense Language Institute. He is a Joint Specialty Officer and Political-Military Affairs sub-specialist with emphasis on Africa and the Middle East. His awards include the Distinguished Service Medal and Silver Star.

9:30 - 10:00 Trends and Shocks to National Security
 
Dr. Thomas G. Mahnken, DASD Policy Planning

Dr. Mahnken has served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy Planning since November 2006. He is responsible for the major strategic planning functions within the Office of the Secretary of Defense. He provides advice on strategy and policy to the Secretary of Defense, Deputy Secretary of Defense, and Undersecretary of Defense for Policy. He is also responsible for the preparation of guidance for war plans and the development of the defense planning scenarios. Between September and October 2006, he was Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Resources and Plans and Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy Planning. Between 1997 and 2006, Dr. Mahnken was a Professor of Strategy at the U.S. Naval War College. From 2004 to 2006, he was a Visiting Fellow at the Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies at Johns Hopkins University’s Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). Between 2003 and 2004, he served as the Acting Director of the SAIS Strategic Studies Program.

Dr. Mahnken served on the staff of the Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction. In 1995-1996, he was a National Security Fellow at the John M. Olin Institute for Strategic Studies at Harvard University. In 1992-1994, he served in the Defense Department’s Office of Net Assessment. He served as a member of the Gulf War Air Power Survey, commissioned by the Secretary of the Air Force to examine the performance of U.S. forces during the 1991 Gulf War. In 1988-1989, he served as an analyst in the Non-Proliferation Directorate of OSD, where he was responsible for enforcing U.S. missile proliferation policy.

Dr. Mahnken is the author of Uncovering Ways of War: U.S. Intelligence and Foreign Military Innovation, 1918-1941 (Cornell University Press, 2002) and (with James R. FitzSimonds) of The Limits of Transformation: Officer Attitudes toward the Revolution in Military Affairs (Naval War College Press, 2003). He is the editor (with Emily O. Goldman) of The Information Revolution in Military Affairs in Asia (Palgrave McMillan, 2004) and (with Richard K. Betts) of Paradoxes of Strategic Intelligence: Essays in Honor of Michael I. Handel (Frank Cass, 2003). He has published numerous articles on national security topics. As a Navy Reserve intelligence officer, he served with Naval Special Warfare units in Iraq and Bahrain and was part of NATO’s initial deployment into Kosovo in 1999. Dr. Mahnken earned his MA and Ph.D. in international affairs from the Johns Hopkins University’s Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). He was a summa cum laude graduate of the University of Southern California with bachelor’s degrees in history and international relations (with highest honors) and a certificate in defense and strategic studies.
10:15 - 11:45 Roundtable 1: Disrupting Adversary Networks
Discuss strategic, analytical, and technological developments that will enhance U.S. capabilities to disrupt terrorist networks.
Prof. John McLaughlin, JHU/SAIS (Moderator) Download Bio
Dr. Matthew Levitt, Washington Institute

Matthew Levitt is a senior fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Stein Program on Terrorism, Intelligence, and Policy. He is also a professorial lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies at Johns Hopkins University's Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). From 2005 to early 2007, he served as deputy assistant secretary for intelligence and analysis at the U.S. Department of the Treasury. In that capacity, he served both as a senior official within the department's terrorism and financial intelligence branch and as deputy chief of the Office of Intelligence and Analysis, one of sixteen U.S. intelligence agencies coordinated under the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. During his tenure at Treasury, he played a central role in efforts to protect the U.S. financial system from abuse and to deny terrorists, weapons proliferators, and other rogue actors the ability to finance threats to U.S. national security.
Prof. Paul Pillar, Georgetown University

Dr. Pillar is a Visiting Professor and member of the core faculty of the Security Studies Program in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. He retired in 2005 from a 28-year career in the U.S. intelligence community, in which his last position was National Intelligence Officer for the Near East and South Asia. Earlier, he served in a variety of analytical and managerial positions, including as chief of analytic units at the CIA covering portions of the Near East, the Persian Gulf, and South Asia. Dr. Pillar also served in the National Intelligence Council as one of the original members of its Analytic Group. He has been Executive Assistant to CIA's Deputy Director for Intelligence, and Executive Assistant to Director of Central Intelligence, William Webster. He has also headed the Assessments and Information Group of the DCI Counterterrorist Center, and from 1997 to 1999 was deputy chief of the center. He was a Federal Executive Fellow at the Brookings Institution in 1999-2000. Dr. Pillar received an A.B. summa cum laude from Dartmouth College, a B.Phil. from Oxford University, and an M.A. and Ph.D. from Princeton University. He is a retired officer in the U.S. Army Reserve and served on active duty in 1971-1973, including a tour of duty in Vietnam. He is the author of Negotiating Peace and Terrorism and U.S. Foreign Policy.
11:45 - 12:15 Lunch
 
Dr. Stephen Flynn, Council on Foreign Relations

Stephen Flynn is the Jeane J. Kirkpatrick senior fellow for National Security Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the author of the critically acclaimed The Edge of Disaster: Rebuilding a Resilient Nation (Random House, 2007) and national bestseller, America the Vulnerable (HarperCollins, 2004). Dr. Flynn is a Consulting Professor at the Center of International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University; a Senior Fellow at the Wharton School’s Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the University of Pennsylvania; and a member of the Marine Board of the National Research Council. He ranks among the world’s most widely cited experts on homeland security issues, including providing congressional testimony on nineteen occasions since 9/11. He spent twenty years as a commissioned officer in the U.S. Coast Guard, was awarded the Legion of Merit, and retired at the rank of Commander. During his time on active duty he had two commands at sea, served in the White House Military Office during the George H.W. Bush administration, and was director for Global Issues on the National Security Council staff during the Clinton administration. He holds a Ph.D. and M.A.L.D. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and a B.S. from the U.S. Coast Guard Academy.
1:00 - 1:15 Break
 
1:15 - 2:45 Roundtable 2: Denying Access to and Use of WMD
Discuss strategic, analytical, and technological developments that will enhance U.S. capabilities to prevent terrorist adversaries from accessing and using weapons of mass destruction.
Dr. L. Dean Simmons, JHU/APL (Moderator) Download Bio
Dr. G. Peter Nanos, Jr., DTRA

Dr. G. Peter Nanos, Jr., is the Associate Director, Research and Development at the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), where he is responsible for combating Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) by providing R&D capabilities to reduce, eliminate, counter, and defeat the threat of WMD and mitigate its effects. Previously, Dr. Nanos served as Director of Los Alamos National Laboratory.

A retired Navy Vice Admiral, Dr. Nanos commanded the Naval Sea Systems Command and was the Director, Strategic Systems Programs. A Trident and Burke Scholar graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy, Dr. Nanos received a Bachelors degree in engineering and a Ph.D. in physics from Princeton University.

A native of Bedford, New Hampshire, his awards and decorations include the Navy Distinguished Service Medal and the Legion of Merit.

COL James L. Hillman, USA (ret), JHU/APL

In the National Security Analysis Department at JHU/APL, Jim Hillman supervises the Advanced Technology and Concept Analysis Group, which explores and develops analysis tools and processes for Asymmetric Warfare analysis.

During 27 years of service in the U.S. Army, Mr. Hillman developed tactical, operational, and technical expertise through command, Battalion-level, and operational staff assignments, and leadership of Army test and operations research organizations. After coming to JHU/APL, Mr. Hillman led the development of the Design Reference Mission for the DD-21, a new class of destroyer that will have the most advanced undersea warfare combat systems ever installed on a surface combatant. He has led development and evaluation studies in Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (C4ISR). Recently, Mr. Hillman led a JHU/APL study team partnered with the Defense Threat Reduction Command to conduct analytic war games to counter the spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction.

Mr. Hillman received a Masters Degree in operations research from the University of Arkansas and Bachelors Degree in mathematics from Arkansas Tech University. He is a graduate of the Infantry Basic and Advanced courses, the Command and General Staff College, and the Army War College.
Ms. Dawn Scalici, NCTC

Dawn Scalici serves as the Deputy Director for Mission Management at the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC). In that capacity, she reports to the Director of NCTC and helps to oversee all national intelligence related to the counterterrorism mission. A career CIA officer, Dawn has been on assignment to NCTC and its predecessor organization, the Terrorist Threat Integration Center, since 2003—most recently serving as Chief of the Al-Qa`ida and Sunni Affiliates Group. Dawn came to NCTC with a strong grounding in interagency work. She served as the Director of Central Intelligence Representative to the National Security Council—a position she helped establish for the Agency in 2000—and earlier held the position of briefer to the Deputy Secretary of State while concurrently serving as the Special Advisor to the Ambassador-at-Large for the New Independent States. Dawn developed managerial and analytic expertise in the Office of Russian and European Analysis (OREA) at CIA conducting political, military, economic, and leadership analysis for countries within the European and Eurasian sphere. Earlier, she analyzed Soviet high technology industries and Soviet strategic forces, arms control, and nuclear security issues.

While with OREA, Dawn represented CIA as a Congressional Fellow with the American Political Science Association and served as a Legislative Assistant for Senator Carl Levin (D-MI) and Representative Rick Lazio (R-NY). The program gave her first-hand experience with American politics and the legislative process, which she put to practical use for the Agency by serving a follow-up rotation as a Senate liaison officer with CIA's Office of Congressional Affairs.

A 25-year veteran of CIA, Dawn began her career in the Office of Imagery Analysis with an educational background in Marine Science and Biology.

2:45 - 3:00 Break
 
3:00 - 4:30 Roundtable 3: Enabling Partners to Combat the Enemy
Discuss strategic, analytical, and technological developments that can enhance capabilities of U.S. allies to combat terrorist adversaries.
Prof. Thomas A. Keaney, JHU/SAIS (Moderator) Download Bio
Mr. Robert Grenier, Kroll

Mr. Grenier joined Kroll Inc., a risk consultancy firm, as a Managing Director in 2006, after retiring from a 27-year career in the Central Intelligence Agency, where he developed his expertise in global intelligence, security, and foreign affairs. During his 14 years as an operations officer in CIA’s Clandestine Service, Mr. Grenier served in foreign assignments including Chief of Station or Chief of Base.

When not serving in foreign assignments, Mr. Grenier was Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Near East and South Asia and Special Assistant for the Near East and South Asia to the Undersecretary of State. He originally conceived and organized CIA’s Counter-Proliferation Division, serving as its first Chief of Operations. He was also Chief of CIA’s basic training facility at “the Farm.”

Recent CIA assignments include Director, CIA Counterterrorism Center (CTC) 2004–2006, where he led the CIA’s involvement in the global War on Terror; Iraq Mission Manager 2002–2004 and as the CIA’s representative to the White House on Iraq; and Chief of Station in Islamabad, Pakistan 1999–2002 before and following the attacks of 9/11.

Mr. Grenier received an AB with Distinction in Philosophy from Dartmouth College and later did graduate studies at the University of Virginia.

Mr. Henry Nuzum, OASD SOLIC

Henry Nuzum works in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. In December 2005, Mr. Nuzum concluded a year in Iraq with the International Republican Institute (IRI). He was first the Chief of Staff of the Baghdad office and then the Director of the Basra Office.

Before serving with the IRI, Mr. Nuzum served aboard the USS John S. McCain (DDG-56), which was homeported in Yokosuka, Japan. During Persian Gulf deployments, he led boarding operations and Tomahawk strikes. In addition to sea service, he was a member of the Navy Sports program and rowed in two Olympic Games and World Championships. At Harvard University, Mr. Nuzum was a Navy Reserve Officer Training Corps (NROTC) midshipman and captain of the Varsity Crew.

Mr. Nuzum will soon complete his MA at the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies (SAIS). During his first year of study, he also worked on the House Armed Services Committee.

BRIG Rod West, CSC, Military Attache, Embassy of Australia

Brigadier Rod West joined the Australian Army as a soldier in 1976 and later graduated from the Officer Cadet School, Portsea in 1979 and was allocated to the Corps of the Royal Australian Engineers. From June 1979 to December 1992 he held various command, instructional and and staff postings as a regimental officer within the Corps. He attended Command and Staff College in 1993. In January 1994 he was posted as the Brigade Major (S3) of the 5th Brigade in Sydney, New South Wales. During this period he was detached for six months as a Technical Adviser to the Cambodian Government, responsible for land mine clearance in the southern provinces. In January 1996 he was promoted to Lieutenant Colonel and was posted as the Commanding Officer of the Royal Military College, Duntroon. From 1997 until 1999 he commanded the 3rd Combat Engineer Regiment (3 CER) in Townsville, Queensland. During this period he deployed as the Joint Task Force Commander to provide emergency relief and re-construction support to the Itape tsunami disaster on the northern coast of Papua New Guinea. For his achievements as the Commanding Officer 3 CER and as the Joint Task Force Commander in Itape, Brigadier West was awarded the Conspicuous Service Cross. Following Regimental Command, Brigadier West served as the Operations Instructor at the Command and Staff College, Queenscliff from 1999 to 2001. During this period he also deployed to Kuwait as a liaison officer and Coalition Planner to the Headquarters, US 3rd Army. Brigadier West was promoted to Colonel in 2001 and was posted as the Commander, Land Command Engineers, responsible for Army’s deployed support engineering effort world wide. In July 2003, he was selected to attend the National War College in Washington, DC. Upon his return to Australia in 2004, he served as the Director Force Structure at Army Headquarters in Canberra, responsible for Army’s major and minor project development, capability management, establishment management and the Hardened and Networked Army project. Briagadier West was promoted to Brigadier in January 2006 and was appointed the Commander, Land Warfare Centre in Canungra, Queensland, responsible for Army’s all Corps professional mastery. From February to September 2007, Brigadier West served as the Commanding General, Joint Headquarters Transition Team – Iraq. A multi-national team of senior military officers, civilians, contractors and locally hired personnel providing mentorship and policy guidance to improve the institutional capacity of the Government and security forces of Iraq. Brigadier West holds a Masters of Management degree from the University of Queensland, a Masters of Science (National Security Strategy) from the United States National Defense University and a Masters of Defence Studies degree from the University of Canberra.
4:30 - 5:30 Social
 
5:30 - 6:30 Dinner
 
6:30 - 7:15 Interagency Perspective
 
Prof. Peter D. Feaver, Duke University

Peter D. Feaver (Ph.D., Harvard, 1990) is the Alexander F. Hehmeyer Professor of Political Science and Public Policy at Duke University and Director of the Triangle Institute for Security Studies (TISS). From June 2005 to July 2007, Feaver was on leave to be Special Advisor for Strategic Planning and Institutional Reform on the National Security Council Staff at the White House. Feaver is author of Armed Servants: Agency, Oversight, and Civil-Military Relations (Harvard Press, 2003) and of Guarding the Guardians: Civilian Control of Nuclear Weapons in the United States (Cornell University Press, 1992). He is co-author, with Christopher Gelpi, of Choosing Your Battles: American Civil-Military Relations and the Use of Force (Princeton University Press, 2004), co-author, with Christopher Gelpi and Jason Reifler, of Paying the Human Costs of War (Princeton University Press, forthcoming), and co-author, with Susan Wasiolek and Anne Crossman, of Getting the Most Out of College (Ten Speed Press, forthcoming). He is co-editor, with Richard H. Kohn, of Soldiers and Civilians: The Civil-Military Gap and American National Security (MIT Press, 2001). He has published several other monographs and over thirty scholarly articles and book chapters on American foreign policy, public opinion, nuclear proliferation, civil-military relations, information warfare, and U.S. national security. In 1993-94, Feaver served as Director for Defense Policy and Arms Control on the National Security Council at the White House where his responsibilities included counterproliferation policy, regional nuclear arms control, the national security strategy review, and other defense policy issues.

7:00 - 8:00 Check In
 
8:15 - 9:45 Roundtable 4: Deterring Tacit and Active Support
Discuss strategic, analytical, and technological developments that will enhance U.S. capabilities to deter tacit and active support of potential terrorist organizations.
Mr. Thomas M. McNamara, Jr., JHU/APL (Moderator) Download Bio
Dr. Paul K. Davis, RAND

Paul K. Davis is a senior scientist and Research Leader at RAND and a Professor of Policy Analysis in the Pardee RAND Graduate School. His research relates to strategic and defense planning, counterterrorism, military transformation, high-level decision support, advanced qualitative and quantitative methods for modeling and simulation, ballistic missile defense, and defense acquisition. His recent books deal with capabilities-based planning, effects-based operations, model composability, and the deterrence and influence component of counterterrorism.

Dr. Davis teaches graduate courses in defense planning, counter-terrorism policy, and policy analysis of strategy problems with massive uncertainty. Dr. Davis is a past member of the Naval Studies Board under the National Academy of Sciences and has served on numerous national studies He was awarded the Vance R. Wanner award by the Military Operations Research Society for lifetime achievement. Dr. Davis has served tours at RAND as a corporate research manager and program manager. Before joining RAND, he was a senior executive in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. He holds a B.S. from the University of Michigan and a Ph.D. in Chemical Physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Ms. Christine A. R. MacNulty, Applied Futures Inc.

Christine MacNulty has more than 35 years experience as a consultant in long-term strategic planning for concepts as well as organizations, technology forecasting, technology assessment, and related areas, as well as socio-cultural change. For the last 15 years, most of her consultancy has been conducted for the Department of Defense, including: The Joint Staff, OSD, DON, USMC, USCG, USA, JTAMDO, BMDO, USACOM, JFCOM J9, and other COCOMs. She has also worked for NATO ACT and NATO NEC. Recently, she has applied her knowledge of strategy, cultures, and cognition to “understanding our adversaries” and to using that information to develop a method for planning and assessing effective nontraditional operations, information operations, and strategic communications.

She has conducted seminars and workshops on the human and organizational aspects of Network-Centric Operations, on Effects Based Operations, and Information Operations for OFT, NATO, and many conference organizations in the U.S. and Europe. Prior to her present position, she worked for International Research & Technology Corporation, SRI International, Taylor Nelson Applied Futures, and the Programmes Analysis Unit, a UK Atomic Energy Authority Think Tank. She was one of the pioneers in the use of scenarios and gaming for corporate planning. She is the founding President & CEO of Applied Futures.

During the last 30 years Christine MacNulty has contributed methods and models for understanding social and cultural change. She developed the European version of SRI International’s Values & Lifestyles Program, and worked with the International Research Institute on Social Change to develop their social models so that they could be used by industry. She has applied her knowledge of people and their values and beliefs to strategic planning, marketing planning, advertising, vision development, organizational change, R&D planning, new concepts and innovation, technology assessment and business development.

She was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce in 1988 for her contribution to British industry. She is the coauthor of two books: Industrial Applications of Technology Forecasting, Wiley, 1971, and Network-Centric Operations: Translating Principles into Practice to be published in 2008. She is presently writing a book on Strategy with Passion: What I have Learned from the U.S. Navy SEALs and Others. Her monograph, “Truth, Perception & Consequences” was published by the Army War College, September 2007. She was recently featured on the Heartbeat of America television program as the owner of an innovative small business.

9:45 - 10:00 Break
 
10:00-11:45 Roundtable 5: Eroding Support for Extremist Ideologies
Discuss strategic, analytical, and technological developments that the U.S. can employ to erode support for extremist ideologies.
Dr. Montgomery McFate, IDA (Moderator) Download Bio
Mr. Jared Cohen, DoS

On the staff of the Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. Department of State since 2006, Jared Cohen is responsible for counter-radicalization, youth and education, public diplomacy, Muslim world outreach, and North Africa. Jared received his B.A. from Stanford University and his M.Phil in International Relations from Oxford University, where he studied as a Rhodes Scholar. While at Oxford, he learned Arabic and traveled to Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon to investigate firsthand how youth in the Islamic world view themselves and their changing role in the world after 9/11. Also fluent in Swahili, Mr. Cohen has traveled extensively throughout Africa researching conflict resolution, genocide, and democracy. He is author of Children of Jihad: A Young American's Travels Among the Youth of the Middle East and One Hundred Days of Silence: America and the Rwanda Genocide. Additional publications include "The Passive Revolution: Is Political Resistance Dead or Alive in Iran?" and "Iran’s Young Opposition."
Dr. Michael S. Doran, DASD Support to Public Diplomacy

Mike Doran was appointed Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Support to Public Diplomacy in April 2007. He is responsible for advising the Department’s senior leadership on policy to support public diplomacy and strategic communication, and for advocating key themes and messages to promote U.S. national security interests. Prior to joining the Department of Defense, Dr. Doran served as Senior Director for Near East and North African Affairs at the National Security Council. His portfolio covered all of the countries in the region except for Iraq. Prior to coming to the NSC, Dr. Doran was a professor in the Department of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University, where he taught courses on the international politics of the Middle East. From 2002 to 2004 he also served as an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. Prior to arriving at Princeton, Dr. Doran taught in the History Department at the University of Central Florida. Following September 11, Mike Doran conducted extensive research on terrorist use of the internet. This research informed an influential article he authored on Osama bin Laden titled “Somebody Else’s Civil War,” which was published in the January/February 2002 issue of Foreign Affairs. It also informed an article on Saudi Arabia titled “The Saudi Paradox” in the January/February 2004 issue of Foreign Affairs, and a Washington Post Op-Ed called “Intimate Enemies” on the depth of the Sunni-Shiite conflict in the Middle East. Originally from Indiana, Dr. Doran received a BA from Stanford in 1987 and a PhD from Princeton in 1997.
COL William K. Mooney, Jr., JS JF/War on Terror

Colonel Bill Mooney is currently a Division Chief in the office of the Deputy Director for the War on Terrorism, J5, on the Joint Staff. A Senior Army Aviator rated in both attack (AH64) and utility (UH60) helicopters, he is a veteran of multiple combat deployments, including Operations DESERT SHIELD/DESERT STORM, JOINT FORGE, and IRAQI FREEDOM II. Most recently, he commanded an aviation battalion in the 1st Cavalry Division in Iraq, during which time his unit was selected as the U.S. Army Aviation Combat Support Unit of the Year.

As a Middle East Foreign Area Officer, Lieutenant Colonel Mooney served as an advisor to the Saudi Arabian National Guard in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and served as the Deputy Chief of the Military Assistance Program Office at the U.S. Embassy, Amman Jordan. COL Mooney recently published an article, “Stabilizing Lebanon: Peacekeeping or Nation-Building?” in the Autumn 2007 issue of Parameters.

COL Mooney earned a Bachelor’s Degree in History and Government from Norwich University; he graduated Magna Cum Laude and was commissioned as a Distinguished Military Graduate. COL Mooney’s military education includes the Aviation Officer’s Basic Course, Rotary Wing Flight School, Aviation Officer’s Advanced Course, Combined Arms Services Staff Course, the Arabic Language Program at the Defense Language Institute, and the Command and General Staff College. He has a Masters Degree in International Relations from Boston University. At Georgetown University, he was a Senior Service College Fellow, and is now a nonresident Fellow and Adjunct Instructor at Georgetown’s Walsh School of Foreign Service.

Mr. Mark Stout, IDA

Mark Stout has been a member of the research staff in the Joint Advanced Warfighting Division of the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) since 2003. At IDA, he has largely worked on terrorism and Iraq. He has previously worked for the Army in the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations and Plans (1988-1990), the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research (1990-1998), and the Directorate of Intelligence at the Central Intelligence Agency (1998-2003). Mr. Stout has a Bachelor's degree in political science and mathematical and computational science from Stanford University, and a Master's degree in public policy from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He is presently a PhD candidate in history at the University of Leeds. He is the co-author of three books, most recently The Terrorist Perspectives Project: Strategic and Operational Views of al Qaida and Associated Movements (Naval Institute Press, 2008).
11:45 - 12:30 Lunch
 
12:15 - 1:00 Potential Adversaries
 
Prof. Bruce Hoffman, Georgetown University

Professor Bruce Hoffman has been studying terrorism and insurgency for more than thirty years. He is currently a tenured professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Washington, DC. Professor Hoffman previously held the Corporate Chair in Counterterrorism and Counterinsurgency at the RAND Corporation and was also Director of RAND’s Washington, D.C. Office. From 2001 to 2004, he served as RAND’s Vice President for External Affairs and in 2004 he also was Acting Director of RAND’s Center for Middle East Public Policy. Professor Hoffman was adviser on counterterrorism to the Office of National Security Affairs, Coalition Provisional Authority, Baghdad, Iraq during the spring of 2004 and from 2004-2005 was an adviser on counterinsurgency to the Strategy, Plans, and Analysis Office at Multi-National Forces-Iraq Headquarters, Baghdad. He was also an adviser to the Iraq Study Group.

Professor Hoffman is a member of the Advisory Committee of the Terrorism and Counterterrorism Program, Human Rights Watch, New York, NY and a member of the Singapore Ministry of Home Affairs Home Team Academy Advisory Panel. He is also a Senior Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington, D.C.; a Senior Fellow at the Combating Terrorism Center, U.S. Military Academy, West Point, NY; a Senior Fellow at the National Security Studies Center at Haifa University, Israel; a Distinguished Fellow and Senior Advisor on International Security Programs at the Institute of Public and International Affairs, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; a Visiting Professor at the University of Sergio Arboleda, Bogota, Colombia; a Visiting Professor at the Institute for Counter-Terrorism, Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya, Israel; and, a Visiting Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

Professor Hoffman was the founding Director of the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at the University of St Andrews in Scotland, where he was also Reader in International Relations and Chairman of the Department of International Relations. Professor Hoffman is Editor-in-Chief of Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, the leading scholarly journal in the field. and a member of the advisory boards of Terrorism and Political Violence and the Review of International Studies. He is also on the advisory board of the Arms Sales Monitoring Project at the Federation of American Scientists and of Our Voices Together: September 11 Friends and Families to Help Build a Safer, More Compassionate World.

He holds degrees in government, history, and international relations and received his doctorate from Oxford University. In November 1994, the Director of Central Intelligence awarded Professor Hoffman the United States Intelligence Community Seal Medallion the highest level of commendation given to a non-government employee, which recognizes sustained superior performance of high value that distinctly benefits the interests and national security of the United States.

A revised and updated edition of his acclaimed 1998 book, Inside Terrorism, was published in May 2006 by Columbia University Press in the U.S. and S. Fischer Verlag in Germany. Foreign language editions of the first edition have been published in ten countries. The Washington Post described Inside Terrorism as "brilliant" and the "best one volume introduction to the phenomenon" (16 July 2006. He was a Fellow and C. V. Starr Distinguished Visitor at the American Academy of Berlin, Germany during the fall, 2006 and a Visiting Fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Canberra, Australia during the summer, 2007.
1:15 - 1:30 Break
 
1:30 - 3:00 Roundtable 6: Defending the Homeland
Discuss strategic, analytical, and technological developments that will enhance U.S. capabilities to defend the homeland from terrorist adversaries.
Mr. John R. Benedict, JHU/APL (Moderator) Download Bio
Mr. R. James Caverly, DHS

Jim Caverly is the Director of the Partnership and Outreach Division (POD) within the Office of Infrastructure Protection of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). POD develops and sustains viable strategic relationships and information sharing systems and processes with the owners and operators of the nation's critical infrastructures and key resources that support program execution across the spectrum of preparedness, prevention, protection, response, and recovery activities. Additionally, POD provides coordination and management of the NIPP process and its supporting Site Specific Plans (SSPs), as well as the National Annual CI/KR Report, which tracks progress of NIPP and SSP implementation, including performance metrics. Mr. Caverly joined DHS at its inception, having previously worked for the Department of Energy (DOE) and its predecessor agencies for over 25 years. During his tenure at the DOE, Mr. Caverly was involved in a broad range of energy-related issues, including energy emergency planning, critical infrastructure protection, international energy security, domestic energy supply, nuclear safeguards and security, and national security policy and planning. Mr. Caverly is a graduate of the University of Notre Dame and the Naval War College, and served for three years on the faculty of the Industrial College of the Armed Forces at the National Defense University.
Brig Gen Christopher D. Miller, J5 USNORTHCOM

Brig. Gen. Christopher D. Miller is Director of Plans, Policy and Strategy, North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command, Peterson Air Force Base, Colo. He is responsible to NORAD for plans, policy and strategy for the safeguarding of the United States and Canada via assigned missions of aerospace warning, aerospace control, and maritime warning. He is also responsible for programming the development, employment and sustainment of assigned Canadian and U.S. forces at North American Air Defense operating locations and bases. His responsibility to USNORTHCOM is developing strategy, policy, deliberate plans, and security cooperation for Canada and Mexico, with primary missions of homeland defense and defense support of civil authorities.
CAPT Robert G. Ross, USCG (ret), DHS

Mr. Ross [Captain, USCG (Retired)] is currently the Chief of the Risk Sciences Branch in the Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate. In this position, he has sponsored and conducted research into homeland security decision making for adaptive, reactive, intelligent, and strategically driven adversaries. Mr. Ross has also actively worked to improve the maturity and capability of risk analytics in homeland security.

The majority of his career, spanning 30 years, was spent in the Marine Safety and Environmental Protection programs. He also served on a polar icebreaker and in engineering, personnel, and military readiness staff positions at several duty stations, including San Juan, Puerto Rico, where, as Captain of the Port and Officer in Charge of Marine Inspection, he was responsible for commercial shipping safety, port safety and security, and marine environmental protection activities.

Mr. Ross also served as the Federal On-Scene Coordinator for several major incidents including the MORRIS J. BERMAN oil spill, the largest U.S. oil spill since the EXXON VALDEZ, and the largest and most successful oil spill response ever managed in its entirety by the Coast Guard. As the Chief, Office of Vessel Traffic Manag