Recent Strategic Assessment Efforts

• Conducted a Terrorism 2025 Project to assess the likely nature of terrorism in the future and to assess the U.S. strategy for the war on terror
• Conducted a Nuclear Futures Project to assess where, when, and why the United States might use nuclear weapons and its implications for the posture and makeup of the U.S. nuclear arsenal
• Conducted an examination of the relationship among economics, finance, globalization, and national security
• Conducted an examination of religion and eschatology and their effect on foreign policy in the Christian, Jewish, and Muslim religions
• Conducted an examination of the global war on terror as seen from both U.S. and Islamic views to discern where the conflict might be headed in the future and to suggest potential U.S. options
• Conducted assessments of DoD Defense Planning Scenarios (DPS) from a policy perspective to inform the final versions of the DPS
• Conducted an examination to determine whether terrorists could acquire the materials and technical know-how needed to build a nuclear weapon, transport it, and detonate it in a Western city
• Organized two international conferences on maritime security issues in the Indian Ocean
• Participated in a National Academy of Sciences Panel charged with examining information and data-mining technologies to counter terrorism and their privacy implications
• Conducted an International Maritime Security Symposium involving participants from 19 countries and 6 continents
• Supported DoD efforts to examine future trends and shocks and their implications for national security
• Conducted an alternative futures study to examine potential geopolitical strategic futures and their impact on the military and related research and development (R&D)
• Facilitated a national-level, multi-year seminar series for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) and the U.S. Navy to assess the future elements of warfare and national security as well as the drivers that will direct those futures. Videotapes of speakers and other materials can be found at http://www.jhuapl.edu/pow/rethinking. The series presented over 70 speakers covering topics focusing on:
  • Rethinking the Principles of War (2004–2005)
  • Rethinking the Future Nature of Competitions and Conflict (2005–2006)
  • Rethinking the Relation Between Economics, Resources, Technology and National and International Security (2006–2007)
  • Rethinking Future Elements of National and International Power (2007–2008)
  • Rethinking the Foundations of National Security Strategy and the QDR (2008–2009)
  • Rethinking US Grand Strategy and Foreign Policy (2009–2010)
  • Rethinking the Future International Security Environment (2010-2011)
• Participated in the Defense Science Board's (DSB's) Transition To and From Hostilities Study Panel
• Participated in a National Reconnaissance Office study that examined future uses of space by the military and suggested potential DoD investment in space-based capabilities
• Chaired a NASA Aeronautical Research Future[s] Panel that made recommendations for future NASA R&D efforts
• Chaired a Joint Forces Command (JFCOM)/Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) Panel charged with assessing future operational environments

Nuclear Futures Project (2011)

Introduction: Over the past several years, there has been considerable debate over the future of the US nuclear posture and of nuclear weapons more broadly. On the one side are arrayed those who argue that the United States should commit itself to eliminating nuclear weapons worldwide. Deployed opposite them are those who argue that nuclear weapons retain political and military utility for the US and others and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. To explore these arguments, the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) held a series of unclassified workshops to map the intellectual landscape regarding nuclear weapons by investigating their possible use, including as deterrents, in the context of specific crisis scenarios.
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Country Workshops

The workshop series sought to explore those nation states, non-nation-state groups, and areas of the world that are of special national security importance to the United States and how those states perceive various issues that affect them both internally and externally. To this end, the workshops sought to examine a state's current leadership and population, how and why they think as they do, their history and the lens through which they look at issues, issues that they are currently facing, and the possibility for future competition and conflict with the United States. Currently available workshop reports include:
 Iran | China | Russia | North Korea  | Venezuela | Soft Power | Nigeria

Visions of Apocalypse: What Jews, Christians, and Muslims Believe about the End Times and How Those Beliefs Affect Our World, by LTC(R) Robert R. Leonhard (2010)

This publication is an essay on comparative eschatology among the three Abrahamic faiths—Judaism, Christianity, and Islam—and how beliefs about the end times express themselves through foreign policy and conflict.  It explores the concept that our world is shaped, influenced, and in some cases governed by age-old prophecies recorded in the sacred literature of Judaism, Christianity, and Islam.  By understanding the essential eschatological themes in those literatures we can better comprehend the world.
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Proceedings from the Indian Ocean Maritime Security Symposium (April 15–17, 2009)

The Indian Ocean Maritime Security Symposium (IOMSS) was convened by the Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security with support from APL. The symposium was held in Canberra, Australia, with representatives from 15 nations. The aim of the IOMSS, as a policy forum, was to improve understanding of the issues and challenges for maritime security in the Indian Ocean Region with a view toward identifying options for enhancing cooperation.
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Proceedings from the Indian Ocean Workshop (April 8–9, 2008)

This first in a series of conferences with international participants was held to examine Indian Ocean geopolitical, economic, trade, resource, and security issues. The workshop involved military, government, academic, and industry participants from six nations. Their discussions highlighted many of the concerns that must be addressed in the near future. Plans were initiated to further develop cooperation among parties actively interested in the maritime aspects of security in the Indian Ocean region.
Compressed  (1 MB)   |   Low Resolution (1.7 MB)    |   High Resolution (4.53 MB) 

The China Relief Expedition: Joint Coalition Warfare in China, Summer 1900, by LTC(R) Robert R. Leonhard (2008)

This publication examines the multinational force that marched to rescue the besieged diplomatic legations in Peking. Operating within a foreign society in which friend and foe looked identical and cultural sensitivities were at the boiling point, the allied forces also had to deal with each other. Conflicting plans sprang from equally conflicting agendas. Comparisons and contrasts with operations in Iraq from 2003 to 2008 are remarkable. We have progressed beyond the ideologies and social context that led to the pillaging of Peking in 1900, but we have not completed the transition by solving the operational implications of democratic liberalism in war.
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Maritime Security: Questions for a New Era, by CAPT(R) Steven L. Richter (April 2006)

This publication briefly examines evolution of maritime strategy from the 14th century to present day and poses questions that, if answered, may lead to a comprehensive/coherent maritime security strategy for the 21st century.

The Evolution of Strategy in the Global War on Terror , prepared by LTC(R) Robert R. Leonhard (September 2005)

This publication illustrates from the history of our Civil War how American strategy evolves and then extrapolates and suggests ways in which strategy in the global war on terror will likely evolve. Part One introduces the subject, and Part Two is an after-action report on a conference sponsored by APL. The goal is to show which aspects of the American strategy in the war on terror will probably change and how they will change, as well as provide some specific policy recommendations primarily developed from conference results.

The Collapse of North Korea: A Prospect to Celebrate or Fear?, by Dr. Michael J. Deane (May 2005)

This short analysis seeks to identify the factors that led those studying North Korea in the late 1980s and early 1990s to forecast its collapse, the basic fallacies that led these predictions astray, and the ongoing prospects for a collapse in the future. From these perspectives, the work assesses whether a future collapse of North Korea is in the best interest of the United States. Full Image

Defense Economics (March 2005)

This analysis identifies economic factors and conditions that are important to a nation-state's ability to develop, acquire, and sustain significant military forces and capabilities. It examines readily available economic data that influence the size and direction of a country's defense spending. It is less applicable to subnational and transnational threats whose financial and arms requirements tend to get lost in the background noise. (Due to extensive notes, file should be SAVED and read offline in Notes Page view.)

Alternative Futures: Scenario Planning for 21st-Century National Security, by Duncan Brown, Doug Randall (Global Business Network), and F. Fernandez (consultant to APL) (March 2005)

This paper examines potential geopolitical strategic futures, their impact on national security and the military, military required technology, and related research and development. This document is for official use only and available to government, military, and DoD contractors by special request from the author.

Culture's Mask: War and Change After Iraq, by Dr. Michael Vlahos (September 2004)

This analysis suggests that we are entering a period of "world-historical" change predicated on an Islamic revival that has been gaining strength for a generation or more and is now clearly continuing to assert itself as manifest in the conflict between the United States and elements of the Muslim world. Over the decades that this conflict promises, an active U.S. engagement in the Muslim world has the potential to profoundly affect both the Muslim world and American society. Culture's Mask argues that our national strategy has yet to fully address the profound implications of this new evolving relationship between America and the Muslim world, and suggests that it is incumbent to do so now.

Perspectives on Military Transformation: Towards a Global Security Force, by Dr. Michael Vlahos (August 2003)

An American "crisis-ethos" has expanded the military's mission to make it the world's security-management force. This expansion has the potential to change the military in ways that are culturally uncomfortable and operationally risky.

Terror's Mask: Insurgency Within Islam, by Dr. Michael Vlahos (May 2002)

This analysis suggested that what we (still) call "terrorism" is actually an insurgency that emerged from a struggle within Islam. The questions it asked then are still relevant today: If the enemy is not "terrorism" but rather a broader insurgency within Islam, how do we take its measure? If the struggle across the Muslim world is about change along with the future of Islam, how do we assess the historical dynamic of that change? And most importantly, if the United States, in pursuing the war on terror, is also drawn into a struggle over change within Islam, how should this influence our national strategy?

Two Enemies: How Change Comes to the Muslim World, by Dr. Michael Vlahos

The Middle East conflict has evolved into a conflict between the United States and its Arab supporters and two enemies or fighter groups. Both groups seek to liberate Muslims from what they see as twin evils of local tyranny and an unbeliever invasion. The United States, by invading Iraq, has accelerated change in the Muslim world and elevated and legitimated politically the two groups. The United States has thus dramatically advanced the cause of successor politics in the Muslim world. The old status quo is dead. America must now choose between two different, authentically Muslim change agents.

Through these analyses, which have provided key underpinnings for a number of war games, seminars, and study efforts sponsored by a variety of DoD offices (including OSD/Office of Force Transformation [OFT], OSD/Office of Net Assessments [ONA], the Assistant Secretary of Defense [ASD]/Special Operations for Low-Intensity Conflict [SOLIC], the DSB, and others), APL analysts are helping to lay the foundation for understanding future national security challenges and future defense requirements.

Principles of War (Essays), by LTC(R) Robert R. Leonhard

This series of short articles, originally published in Armchair General magazine, primarily covers each classic Principle of War individually:

Contact: Duncan Brown, Director of APL's Strategic Assessments Program.