The Strategic Assessments Office within the National Security Analysis Department leads and participates in analyses and assessments of national security strategy and policy, national military strategy, and defense strategy and funding; develops and assesses operational concepts; and analyzes research, development, and technology trends.
Recent Strategic Assessment Efforts
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Conducting an on-going Country Workshop Series as a way to explore those nation states and areas of the world that are of special national security importance to the United States. Panel Members principally from academia are brought together for one-day moderated discussion sessions. Reports from these workshops are available on line:
Iran | China | Russia | North Korea
- Participating on a National Academy of Sciences Panel charged with examining information and data mining technologies to counter terrorism and their privacy implications
- Conducted an International Maritime Security Symposium involving participants from 19 countries and 6 continents
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Conducting a study to examine the Boxer Rebellion and its implications for present conflict
- Supporting DOD in its efforts to examine future trends and shocks and implications for national security.
- Conducted an Alternative Futures study to examine potential geopolitical strategic futures and their impact on the military and related R&D
- Facilitating a national-level multi-year effort for OSD and the US Navy to assess the future elements of warfare, national security, and the elements that will direct those futures. This professional series of seminars is video-taped with files posted on the web at http://www.jhuapl.edu/POW/rethinking. The series has presented over 50 speakers covering topics focusing on:
- Rethinking the Principles of War (2004-2005)
- Rethinking the Future Nature of Competitions and Conflict (2005-2006)
- Rethinking the Relation Between Economics, Resources, Technology and National and International Security (2006-2007)
- Rethinking Future Elements of National and International Power (2007-2008)
- Conducting and documenting an examination of the war in Iraq as seen from both U.S. and Islamic views to discern where the conflict might be headed in the future and to suggest potential U.S. options
- Participated in the Defense Science Board’s Transition to and From Hostilities Study Panel
- Participated in a National Reconnaissance Office study that examined future uses of space by the military and suggested potential DoD investment in space-based capabilities
- Chaired a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aeronautical Research Future[s] Panel that made recommendations for future NASA R&D efforts
- Chaired a JFCOM/TRADOC Panel charged with assessing future operational environments
Expanding Perspectives
Maritime Security: Questions for a New Era (April 2006)
Briefly examines evolution of maritime strategy from the 14th Century to present day, & poses questions that if answered, may lead to a comprehensive / coherent maritime security strategy for the 21st Century CAPT(R) S. L. Richter
The
Evolution of Strategy in the Global War on Terror (September
2005)
Illustrates from the history of our Civil
War how American strategy evolves and then extrapolates
and suggests ways in which strategy in the global
war on terror will likely evolve. Part One introduces
the subject and Part Two is an after-action report
on a conference sponsored by JHU/APL. The goal
is to show which aspects of the American strategy
in the war on terror will probably change and how
they will change, as well as some specific policy
recommendations primarily developed from conference results. Prepared
by LTC(R) Dr. R.
R. Leonhard
The
Collapse of North Korea: A Prospect to Celebrate
or Fear? (May 2005)
This short analysis seeks to identify the factors that led
North Korean viewers of the late 1980s and early 1990s to forecast
the North’s collapse, identify the basic fallacies that led
these predictions astray, and the on-going prospects for a collapse
in the future. From these perspectives, the work assesses whether
a future collapse of North Korea is in the best interest of the US. Abstract Full
image, 2 column PDF file (3.3 MB) by Dr.
M. J. Deane
Principles of War - Essays
by R.
Leonhard
A series of short articles, originally published in The
Armchair General magazine, primarily covering each classic Principle
of War individually:
Defense
Economics (March
2005)This
analysis identifies economics factors and conditions
that are important to a nation-state’s ability
to develop, acquire and sustain significant military
forces and capabilities. It examines readily available
economic data which influence the size and direction
of a country’s defense spending. It is less applicable
to subnational and transnational threats whose financial
and arms requirements tend to get lost in the background
noise. (Due
to extensive
Notes, file should be SAVED and read off-line
in NOTES view. )
Terror’s
Mask: Insurgency Within Islam (May
2002) suggested that what we (still) call “terrorism” is actually an insurgency that emerged from a struggle within Islam. The questions it asked then are still relevant today: If the enemy is not “terrorism” but
rather a broader insurgency within Islam, how do we take
its measure? If the struggle across the Muslim World is about
change and the future of Islam, how do we assess the historical
dynamic of that change? and most importantly, If the U.S.
in pursuing the war on terrorism is also drawn into a struggle
over change within Islam, how should this influence our national
strategy?
by M. Vlahos
Culture’s Mask: War and Change After Iraq (September 2004) suggests we are entering a period of “world-historical” change predicated on an Islamic revival which for a generation or more has been gaining strength, and which is now clearly continuing to assert itself as manifest in the conflict between the U.S. and elements of the Muslim World. Over the decades which this conflict promises, an active U.S. engagement in the Muslim World has the potential to profoundly affect both the Muslim World and American society. Culture’s Mask argues that our national strategy has yet to fully address the profound implications of this new and evolving relationship between America and the Muslim World, and suggests that it is incumbent to do so now.
by M. Vlahos
Perspectives on Military Transformation: Towards a Global Security Force (August, 2003) An American “crisis-ethos ” has expanded the Military ’s mission to make it the world ’s security-management force. This expansion has the potential to change the Military in ways that are culturally uncomfortable and operationally risky.
by M. Vlahos
Alternative Futures: Scenario Planning for 21st-Century National Security (March 2005): this paper examines potential geopolitical strategic futures, their impact on national security and the military, military required technology and related R&D. This document is FOUO and available to government, military, and DoD contractors by special request from the author.
by D. Brown, D. Randall (Global Business Network), and F. Fernandez (Consultant to JHU/APL)
Two Enemies: How Change Comes to the Muslim World: The Middle East conflict has evolved into a conflict between the U.S. and its Arab supporters and two enemies or fighter groups. Both groups seek to liberate Muslims from what they see as twin evils of local tyranny and an unbeliever invasion. The U.S by invading Iraq has accelerated change in the Muslim world and elevated and legitimated politically the two groups. The United States has thus dramatically advanced the cause of successor politics in the Muslim World. The old status quo is dead. America must now choose between two different, authentically Muslim change agents.
by M. Vlahos
Through these analyses, which have provided key underpinnings for a number of war games, seminars, and study efforts sponsored by a variety of Defense Department offices (including OSD/OFT, OSD/ONA, ASD/SOLIC, the DSB, and others), APL analysts are helping to lay the foundation for understanding future national security challenges and future defense requirements.
Contact: The
Head of the Strategic Assessments Office, D.
Brown. |
Strategic Assmnt