The speaker noted that we are currently at a challenging point in history, directly between two centuries.  Our response to the challenges of the these changing times will be critical to the next period of history.  We need to reorganize the military and our alliances to be better able to deal with the future.

US Position in the Future World

We must ask: “Where does the US want to be in 50 years from now?”

Answers would include being a nation of

• Influence
• Freedom
• Leadership on the world stage
• Example to other countries

However, there is no guarantee that this is destined to happen this way.

We have a tremendous legacy from World War II to work with

• In first half of 20^th Century the US was somewhat timid about playing on the world stage, then came WWII

• To get to where we want to go in the next 50 years, need to look at lessons from the 20^th Century – which ones will apply and which won’t.

Transformation Issues

The  most transformational point in the last period of military history was the start of the All-Volunteer Force

• Now we have the energy and intellectual abilities of the young people who have chosen to join the military
• This has allowed us to get where we are today with new technologies and operational concepts
• Technology must be matched to operational concepts that permit full exploitation of those advances
• We can do so much more now with fewer people
• Infantry battalions can do four times what they could do in the mid-20^th Century
• Done by harnessing brainpower for the operational concepts along with the technologies

The pillar of Transformation that needs to be looked at most closely now is the business end of the military to make better use of the resources we have

Manpower and New Aspects of Wars

Transformation has reduced the force 30-40% so we have been converting manpower funds into paying for the technologies needed to sustain this smaller more capable force.  However, there is still a need for large numbers of forces because pre- and post-conflict duties are very manpower intense.

Looking at the future we can see patterns where our military challenges are not going to be short-term. We will be trying to change cultures by

• Bringing democracy
• Moving countries from ethnic-based to being nation-based
• And other such changes which are likely to be generational

In past wars we could use military power for clear, decisive strikes that would likely end a conflict.  We did not do all the activities that the military is expected to do now.  This is especially true in the Phase 0 and Phase 4 levels of conflict.

Military power now must be fused with all the other aspects of national power

• In the 20^th Century most conflict activity was done by big armies against other big armies
• Military would pull out after major combat was over
• The US military has not learned that it must start to think about long-term commitments
• The Balkans conflict is still not over after 14 years
• Some 7-8,000 troops still working to keep peace in Bosnia with expectation of turning over duties to EU forces shortly
• Serbia still has not reached that level of stability
• Already at EUCOM meetings not everyone is in uniform
• Representatives for trade, economics, energy, etc.
• 91 countries in the AOR from Norway to South Africa
• How they work together might make a good model for working relationships in other regions

Security, Stability, and Reconstruction (SSR)

 NATO likes to do SSR tasks

• Largely due to the concept that most of the non-US forces come from cultures no longer comfortable with aggressive military actions
• Their populations are more attuned to SSR so they were surprisingly willing to take on tasks in Afghanistan
• These forces are capable of force protection but are more oriented toward peace-keeping efforts
• As our most successful alliance, we need to look to NATO as a model for other regions

NATO likes what it is doing in Afghanistan – something that is under reported and under appreciated

• Afghanistan has beaten expectations – not even the anticipated famine
• Taliban is weak, really more of a nuisance, could not upset recent election
• There has been no insurrection
• Afghan National Army being trained by NATO is widely respected in the country
• 15,000 recognizably fierce fighters
• Task is to make them good soldiers
• They have already be helpful in on-going operations
• There is an energy in the street and the government showing that they have hope for their future
• Biggest problem (of many) is with the drug lords and drug traffic which makes up about 50% of the economy
• Problems are of governance rather than chaos
• US brings different capabilities than does NATO
• There is hope that NATO will be willing/able to do both SSR and force protection
• The combat side is very different than it was two years ago
• The trend is toward an improving situation

Pre-conflict SSR

• How we use forces in this Phase 0 is enormously important

• Need to be forward engaged to be ready for this

Transformation in NATO

Changes are happening simultaneously in EUCOM and NATO

• This is a good thing
• Other NATO forces are moving into more power projection
• There are lots of hurdles, mostly cultural
• NATO has always been designed as a reactive force
• Now need to get NATO involved in the Pre-conflict phase
• In Africa being proactive has kept costs at about 10% of those required when being reactive
• US expeditionary/global force structure based on the concept of proactive use of military power
• Now need to impress this concept on NATO for its force structure
• Need this connection as part of the all-important trans-Atlantic relationship

There is a need to change the construct of NATO forces

• There is no such thing as multi-national logistics – each force supplies its troops in joint operations
• There is barely a multi-national  intelligence effort – usually only an attempt at passing the hat to provide for the needs of a multi-national force
• When looking at NATO multi-national force numbers, need to recognize that at least 30% of the number is really national support only to their own troops

Future Conflict Areas
Other areas of the world will likely need attention from US forces, too

Africa

• Another area where we need to decide whether we will go in at Phase 0 or at Phase 4

• US historically has gone into Liberia about every five years with some form of band-aide temporary solution
• Other countries tend to go into their own specific regions to help on a regional basis
• Perhaps we could improve the situation by going in long before conflicts begin where there are so many threats including fundamentalism
• Could go in with something beyond military programs
• Could work with industry to develop jobs
• Why should we wait for countries like Nigeria to be split in half by conflict
• Although 7^th largest producer of oil, people must stand in line for limited fuel supplies
• Obviously, a problem that needs answers other than from the military
• Reorganization is important so that we build structure forces to face new challenges in places like Africa especially could be important for the Navy
• Gulf of Guinea and Western littoral facing challenges they cannot handle
• Problems of piracy, human trafficking, drug smuggling, etc.
• We can make a difference there if we are organized correctly and with other forces also properly organized

Europe now sees that problems elsewhere will affect them eventually, too

• Recent attacks in Holland, Spain, and Turkey show that
• These are collective problems of huge proportions

Elsewhere in the world needs to be made more secure

• Huge areas that cannot be managed by their own governments
• We could help them with management issues
• We know that we could fight a threat and win militarily
• Bigger challenge is to get into a conflict early with a plan to avoid a major war
• Need help from existing alliances or coalitions of the willing
• Must be more than a military effort – a collective society’s efforts
• Need to blur the borders among the regional commanders since the problems and threats overlap
• While EUCOM “owns” most of Africa plus Europe, CENTCOM has the Horn of Africa
• Need to be able to trace money, groups, economics, across borders
• Need to train local forces for non-conventional and special operations forces, but can be done.  Example:
• EUCOM spent 18 months tracing one bad actor across several countries
• How we work with those countries now is completely different than when we started
• Now those governments recognize that we are not there to take over control of their jurisdictions
• Those governments also realize that they can accomplish such tasks themselves as long as they have our help

The Point of Transformation for the US military is to develop a more effective force beyond service boundaries.  It is not to have large numbers of troops overseas in places that do not make sense any more

• The Army is changing and they needed the most change in this area
• Future concept will be that forces are out in the world making sure that nothing will happen by helping other countries cope with challenges
• Navy and Air Force will be more involved in such presence missions
• SOF can be sharing its expertise in small unit tactics and reconstruction
• Need to build a better web so that we always have a handle on what might be happening in a given part of the world
• Currently we have mal-formed organizations that are mal-positioned and so cannot get the job done for the future

What areas will matter in the future?

• Africa
• The Caucuses
• Our alliance with Europe so that means NATO has to transform, too
• NATO still expects US to lead but that will not be unusually burdensome
• EUCOM needs to change its name to reflect the whole area it is responsible for (91 countries, most outside of Old Europe)

Changes that need to take place

• Change the psyche so that there is an expanded view of what is needed to solve problems
• In the past military power was enough – not now
• Need different learned behavior
• Need to aggressively reach out to young leaders
• To those on the other side to offer help
• To those in our country to develop cultural sensitivity, push language training and overseas travel
• Some specific suggestions for developing training of young leaders
• In their first ten years military leaders should be learning about their own services
• Then at staff level schools they need a strong dose of learning about the other services and cultures
• There is a great need to develop strategic thinking
• We have young officers who can do tactical and operational thinking very well
• Currently, there is a major problem with strategic thinking at the mid-level
• Language should be taught at early ages but 22 year olds will not be ready to become strategic thinkers

The military needs to work more closely with the State Department

• Former ambassadors from a region could help understand problems for a regional commander
• One of biggest problems is who will pay for these liaison exchanges
• Should involve people from other agencies such as DOE or CIA
• Yearly meetings within EUCOM have representatives from diverse backgrounds
• Develop Theater Security Cooperation Plan
• Transforming how we are use Defense Attaches so that they act as liaisons between regional ambassadors and regional military commanders

Information Operations

How well we use information varies from place to place

• Eastern Europe is doing well
• New NATO members are excited about the opportunities now opening to them
• People know they have a future
• We need to do a lot better in Africa
• Enemies there grow where there is hopelessness
• People not use to having hope here
• Simply showing that we are there for the long term and that we are not ignoring their problems helps
• Need a more proactive approach

World is moving toward being oriented around major trading blocks

• Europe is already there
• China will have growing influence in its region, too
• Much more needs to be done in South American, too
• In Africa could use influence intelligently to help the people and our economy
• An American ambassador noted that today if an African had $100 he would buy things made in China or Japan or other places, not the US
• An African senior government noted that the US tells them what they need and China gives it to them
• There is a need to take American CEOs to Africa with other specialists to help develop the economies there
• The Marshall Plan concepts might be useful again
• Just because one area of the continent is dangerous, does not mean that all of Africa should be off-limits to American enterprise

Future Outlooks

We are on the way to properly transform the military and NATO

• Need to develop and use interoperability standards more
• US cannot be doing SSR alone
• There is a gradual convergence of thought that all the NATO countries are in this together and need to develop skills together

To be a nation of influence would mean:

• A strong economy
• Strong and expandable culture
• A government that is respected if not always admired
• A strong military

The Soviet state failed because it only had the last element so we should expect that the Chinese will be building up their military forces shortly

The more politicians disagrees among countries, the better the militaries get along in direct connections.

• The European Security Defense identification is real now
• Still in the what-do-we-do-with-these-forces phase
• Need to recognize that forces promised for EU actions are the same forces that are promised to NATO for their missions

Bad news in NATO is that half of the countries will be spending less than 2% of their GDP on their militaries

• Up to 70% of those budgets are related to manpower expenses
• There is an EU cell at EUCOM for liaison
• Necessary because there are not enough forces/funds to have duplicate structures
• Need to deconflict who is doing what under what command authority

Provincial Reconstruction Teams in Afghanistan

• Very successful application of forces in a Post Conflict phase
• Considered expression of national will to help out in Afghanistan
• Germany was there first but many others followed taking responsibility for specific regions
• Some non-NATO countries taking part, too
• Started by covering only Kabul but have been expanding out to specific regions in counter clockwise fashion around country
• In 80% of Afghanistan, four-man teams can drive out 100 miles, do a task, and return safely – now
• Taliban remains at nuisance level as long as Pakistan also helps along the borders

Peace-Keeping Issues

A well-trained soldier can also be a peace-keeper but the reverse is not necessarily true

• If peace-keeping fails, need the combat skills to handle a worsening problem
• You need to go to any mission trained for the worst case scenarios

• Post Gulf War efforts in northern Iraq showed Marines capable and willing to take on major humanitarian missions
• In such situations, US forces can set examples for other forces and for foreign people they are helping
• Can change attitudes about military forces in general and the US in particular
• US taxpayers should get both kinds of forces for their money

Problems with ethnic hatred can be the most ferocious and most difficult to overcome

• Need to plan on a generational changes before make much progress
• Specific steps can be taken:
• Decapitate the force carrying out ethnic cleansing or other crimes against humanity
• Then almost have to wait for the next generation to grow up without the same immediate ways to feel as their parents did
• In Bosnia, the people already see what is in it for them to get along – membership in Europe and its economic advantages
• Now willing to change their behaviors to get what they want from Europe or the US

State Partnership Programs

• Run by individual state National Guard bureaus working with individual countries
• Help with training, disaster response, exercises, etc.
• For example: Utah works with Morocco
• Always coordinated with regional commanders
• An expanding program working very well with Eastern Europe

Only just beginning in Africa which needs many more such efforts

EUCOM and Other Relationships

EUCOM/SOCOM relationship

• Relations between the two commands varies depending on the task
• Sometimes one supports the other but the reverse may also be true
• Theater commanders basically have broadband authority but may sometimes need narrow band abilities of others like SOCOM
• Also developing relationships with STRATCOM
• CENTCOM and EUCOM often “trade” countries especially in complex situations with overlapping issues such as in the Mid-East

Relations with Allies currently center around Iraq

• Allies may not approve of US Iraq activities but generally approve of American relationships

Regional commanders also need to include liaisons from other government agencies such as CIA

• EUCOM is a good training ground for representatives from these other agencies
• They can take their new expertise back to Washington
• Need to get younger officers of all kinds into such training situations for their own benefit and for the opportunity of getting fresh ideas from “the back row”

Regional commanders need to put out good guidance to allow subordinates to keep the action moving.

• Think of the commander as a platespinner on stage with 10 or more going at once
• Get each started and then have others help tend each spinning plate (or issue)
• Simultaneous transformation of NATO and EUCOM is like this but needs to be done this way

Service Relationships

The Marine Corps as an effective organizational structure

• Corps is a society, not a bureaucracy
• Need to make everyone feel a part of it
• After the Commandant visited each new class of young officers, they could go out to the fleet and say that they heard the Commandant say….
• Talked about the importance of both understanding operational arts and also cultural sensitivities
• Reminded them that a single act could make it to CNN in no time
• Single actions could lead to very bad impressions either of the Corps or the country

We still need to preserve separate service cultures

• Approaches to problems will vary but that is a good thing since different problems will need different solutions
• Need to be willing/capable to come to some consensus
• Need to teach younger service members that you never want to do anything to hurt your society
• This concept would not be as effective if you were dealing with bureaucracies rather than societies
• Need to make them feel part of something
• Services need to recruit individuals but they retain families
• Another benefit from the All Volunteer Force