Rethinking Maritime Strategy: a New Approach for a More Complex Maritime Environment

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I have not seen any reactions to my posting of February 2,which suggests that the Navy, in developing its new maritime strategy, consider the strategic, military, economic, etc., etc. implications of climate change. I cited the February 2, 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Perhaps today's unveiling of the IPPC's report on "Climate Change 2007" and the extensive media coverage it is receiving, can be a "stimulant." On a related matter, the non-partisan Public Agenda, in cooperation with Foreign Affairs, published its "Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index yesterday. It reports that 3/4 of those surveyed say they are worried about global warming; 41% say they worry "a lot." I suggest the Navy could do worse in the public and its political masters' eyes than to "lean forward" and be seen as "engaged" on this national and global security issue. Perhaps a global "1000-ship" navy can be cemented by a global mission!

Posted by jan breemer on 4/6/2007 3:44:00 PM


There seems to be a lull in the discussion, so I thought I'd try and liven things up a bit by raising the issue of climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IGPP) today released its 21-pp report. Conclusions include the prediction that temperatures this century will go up 3.2-7.1 degrees fahrenheit and that sea levels will rise 7-23 inches. Depending on the rate of polar ice melting, an additional 3.9-7.8 inches are possible. These changes are expected to produce extensive droughts in some regions and greater rainfall in others. Hurricane and tropical storm strength is expected to increase, especially in the Atlantic.
The Navy's scientific community has talked about climate change for some time; perhaps the time has arrived for Big Navy to "lean forward" and explore possible Maritime Strategic, operational and design implications. We may want to look again at the report produced by Schwartz and Randall for OSD Net Assessment in October 2003. It noted that, "...because of the potentially dire consequences, the risk of abrupt climate change, although uncertain and quite possibly small, should be elevated beyond a scientific debate to a U.S. national security concern." Here are some possible "kick-start" issues:
1. What are the strategic implications for global shipping and the US Navy of an ice-free Arctic passage?
2. What are the implications of changing ocean tempretaures and salinity levels for the accoustic environment?
3. Extensive droughts and coastal flooding will almost certainly cause social and political unrest. How might navies prepare for the massive popupation migration patterns that could evolve?
4. What are the implications for maritime trade generally and for Navy operations and ship design of more violent weather patterns?
5. What can de Navy do to reduce CO2 emissions? Should we reconsider greater reliance on nuclear fuel?

Posted by jan s breemer on 2/2/2007 12:38:30 PM

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